Carefully examining evidence from every presidential election from 1960 through 2004, William Adams finds definitive answers to this long-standing, controversial question.
Professor Adams utilizes a wide variety of methods — including survey research, a “natural experiment,” focus groups, and a time series analysis — all of which yield consistent and surprising findings.
Reviews
● “[R]esearchers have been trying for decades to test the popular belief that election night projections discourage voting among those who have not yet turnout out. These earlier efforts have been too lightweight and flawed to put the issue to rest. But this new work is different and convincing. ... [This book] ought to put the issue to rest once and for all.”● “Adams' fine book won't end the argument over projections. But as the 2008 campaign commences, it will become the place where the argument begins.”
— Jack Shafer, Slate
● “I see Election Night News and Voter Turnout as a useful corrective to the hyperbolic histrionics that often accompany the debate about the impact of early projections. It is likely to remain the most realistic and best summary of this issue for a long time.”
— Kathleen A. Frankovic, Political Communication
● “This clear and smartly designed analysis of the media projection problem is the new baseline study, and thus is essential reading for students and professionals involved in elections and election analysis. Highly recommended. All academic collections.”
— Choice
● “The best treatment of the issue of election night projections yet to appear. Adams draws reasonable and balanced conclusions, and makes sensible recommendations for policy changes that could minimize an important controversy in our political system.”
- Scott Keeter, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
● “There is no doubt that election projection controversies will continue into the future, which will make this volume a valuable resource for some time.”
— Thad E. Hall, Presidential Studies Quarterly
● “Adams has put together a remarkable and persuasive collection of studies on an important issue, using a unique, multi-method approach that sets a great example for scholarship.”
— Trevor Thompson, Public Opinion Quarterly
● “Adams brings to bear a wide-ranging set of data to conclusively analyze the impact of election night projections on voter turnout.”
— Michael Traugott, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
Ordering
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[Note to instructors: For prepaid orders of 20 or more, modestly priced paperback versions may be ordered direct from the publisher.]
Chapters
Chapter
|
Methodology
|
Focus
|
| 1: The Controversy's Context | Concept mapping | Nationwide, 1960-2004 |
| Explains the controversy over early projections and puts the issue into the broader context of the numerous motivations for voter participation. | ||
| 2: Reassessing Conflicting Findings | Meta-analysis | Western states, nationwide |
| Reviews, using conventions of meta-analysis, the inconsistent findings of prior studies of projections. | ||
| 3: Election Night Newscasts | Content analysis | ABC, CBS, NBC |
| Recounts of the nature, frequency, and timing of network projections since 1960. | ||
| 4: Polling Portland's Nonvoters | Survey research | Western Oregon |
| Analyzes the largest election-night survey of nonvoting registered voters ever conducted, along with a survey of voters. | ||
| 5: Turnout Test of Twin Counties | "Natural experiment" | Eastern Oregon |
| Contrasts hourly turnout patterns in two highly similar adjacent Oregon counties, one using Mountain Time and the other Pacific Time. | ||
| 6: Heartland not Disheartened | Static group design | Idaho, Kansas, N. Dakota |
| Compares total voter turnout in matched groups of counties in different time zones (exposed to more or less projection news) in each of three states. | ||
| 7: Decades of Dinnertime Dropoff | Time series | California |
| Examines hourly turnout patterns of Los Angeles voters from 1974 through 2002 for differences in late-day voting in projected elections. | ||
| 8: Deploring but Ignoring Projections | Focus groups | Washington, Oregon, California |
| Assesses focus groups on the subject of projections that were held with registered voters in the far west between 1984 and 1999. | ||
| 9: Sorting Through 2000 Snafus | Multiple methods | Florida |
| Explores whether network coverage depressed turnout in the western panhandle of Florida and other projection issues in 2000. | ||
| 10: Equity, Fairness, and Policy Options | Policy analysis | Nationwide |
| Draws conclusions from the preceding chapters and suggests directions for advancing public policy deliberations. | ||
Author
William Adams is Professor of Public Policy and Public Administration at George Washington University. In addition to Election Night News and Voter Turnout, books that he has authored/edited include Television Coverage of the Middle East, Television Coverage of International Affairs, Television Coverage of the 1980 Presidential Campaign, and Television Network News: Issues in Content Research (with Fay Schreibman).
Scholarly studies by Professor Adams have been published in books and academic journals such as Public Opinion Quarterly, Policy Studies Journal, Journal of Broadcasting, Journal of Politics, Journalism Quarterly, Foreign Service Journal, Public Administration Review, Journal of Public Affairs Education, and International Journal of Public Administration. He has lectured at many universities abroad and traveled extensively in more than 185 countries. In 2010, he was awarded a Fulbright to teach at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur.
